Bitcoin is ratcheting upwards as trade negotiations between the US and the rest of the world continue.

The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $99,700 on Thursday morning in New York, up from around $94,000 a week prior.

Signs of optimism are showing even amid the trade jitters — including Federal Reserve policy, corporate Bitcoin buying, and sanctions evasion as geopolitical strife mounts.

So what’s really behind this recent rally? Here’s what the experts are saying.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered

“The dominant story for Bitcoin has changed again,” Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, wrote in a Thursday memo.

First, Kendrick writes, Bitcoin was a risk asset — then, in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, a way to diversify away from US assets. That tune has changed.

“It is now all about flows, and flows are coming in many forms.”

Kendrick pointed to prime drivers of those flows, including spot exchange-traded funds in the US, which drew in $3.5 billion over the past three weeks, as well as Strategy’s relentless acquisition of Bitcoin.

“I apologise that my $120,000 second-quarter target may be too low,” Kendrick wrote.

Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, said the Fed will eventually loosen monetary policy to spur growth and stave off recession.

That will drive a surge in Bitcoin as investors pile into more risk.

There is “a lot of fear, uncertainty, doubt in the markets,” Hayes said recently. “The monetary authorities, especially in America, cannot handle that, so they’re going to resort to money printing.”

Hayes’ comments echo his previous statements, where he predicted that these policies will drive Bitcoin’s price to just under $200,000.

Investors are seeking non-US alternatives, Hayes wrote in April. “Physically, that’s gold. Digitally, that’s Bitcoin.”

Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock

Mitchnick is watching the tech-heavy Nasdaq index very closely.

“The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is going to be an absolutely critical driver,” Robbie Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, told Inside Solana last Friday.

If Bitcoin trades with low or even negative correlation to what he calls “left tail” events, or extreme downside risk situations, “then it becomes potentially a very important portfolio asset to all manner of institutional portfolios.”

VanEck

Analysts Matthew Sigel, Patrick Bush, and Nathan Frankovitz of VanEck said sanctions-skirting and de-dollarisation will help to drive Bitcoin’s usage and price upwards.

“Countries like Russia and Venezuela have already acknowledged BTC’s developing role in international trade,” they wrote in a blog post on Monday.

Both countries have used cryptocurrencies to trade energy with partners, in part to avoid US sanctions.

“Many nations will transition some international trade to BTC as a result of Western nations’ overuse of sanctions, the desire to hedge away dollar risk, and the lack of trustworthy alternative currencies.”

Polymarket

Data shows Polymarket pools can be powerful predictors. So what are the punters wagering?

The chances of Bitcoin hitting different points above $100,000 in the month of May are up significantly, with $105,000 at 60% and $110,000 at nearly one-in-three.

Bettors put a three in four chance at $110,000 being Bitcoin’s high-water mark for the year.

And 43% bet Bitcoin will reach $130,000.

Andrew Flanagan is a markets correspondent for Inside Solana. Have a tip? Reach out to aflanagan@dlnews.com.