Bettors just gave Canadian Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney higher chances than his rival of winning the upcoming election to become prime minister.

Carney’s rival, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, was once the clear favourite on the betting platform Polymarket.

That was until US President Donald Trump threatened the long-time US ally with tariffs as well as pushing for the country to become an American state.

Canadian backlash has prompted, among other things, a boycott of US goods and travel — and has helped Carney’s odds. Poilievre is seen as a Trump ally, while Carney has pushed back on Trump.

The spat escalated on Tuesday when Trump said in a Fox interview that Canada is “one of the nastiest countries to deal with” and that Canada “was meant to be the 51st state.”

Poilievre is seen as the more pro-crypto candidate. He has invested in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and may even be mulling the establishment of a strategic digital asset reserve.

Carney has promoted the idea of a central bank digital currency in the past; Poilievre, meanwhile, has called for their ban.

In January, when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau first announced his resignation, Polymarket bettors put Carney’s odds of winning the election at just 10%.

Poilievre has led the race on the site since its inception on January 14 apart from a brief flip on March 15.

Trump said in a recent interview that he “doesn’t care” who wins.

Canada’s election hasn’t been called yet, but the Canadian Elections Act dictates that it must be held no later than October 20.

Andrew Flanagan is a markets correspondent for Inside Solana. Have a tip? Reach out to aflanagan@dlnews.com.