Traders like XRP’s chances.

The Ripple-linked cryptocurrency’s likelihood of hitting a new all-time high before the end of 2025 just jumped to 66% on Polymarket, from 29%.

The reason appears to be Ripple’s recent regulatory wins.

“If Ripple continues its legal victories and scales cross-border partnerships, I’d peg XRP between $3 and $4.50 by year-end,” Anil Oncu, CEO and co-founder of crypto-payment firm Bitpace, told Inside Solana.

Ripple’s founders developed XRP and the firm uses the cryptocurrency to facilitate cross-border payments.

On Wednesday, XRP was at $2.62 in late morning trading UK time.

Other factors potentially affecting the price? The fate of US President Donald Trump’s on again-off again trade war, crypto policymaking in Washington, and whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

Adoption of XRP by institutional investors is also a variable.

The renewed interest in XRP has coincided with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s disclosure on May 8 that it was settling its long-running case against Ripple and two of its senior executives.

The company had already jumped the gun, announcing the agency’s decision to drop the case in March.

“The SEC case outcome is the pivot point,” Oncu said. “Beyond that, broader adoption by financial institutions could drive demand.”

Spurred on by the Trump administration’s hands-off approach to crypto regulations, institutional investors have increased their XRP investments. If the SEC approves spot XRP exchange-traded funds, that could spur greater buying of the cryptocurrency.

Polymarket punters put the chances of spot XRP ETFs being approved this year at 79%.

Geoffrey Kendrick, digital assets research chief at UK bank Standard Chartered, told Inside Solana he expects the agency to approve the ETFs before October.

Both Standard Chartered and JPMorgan analysts predict XRP ETFs to attract up to $8 billion in investor flows within a year.

Kendrick predicts that XRP could double its price to $5.50 in 2025, reach $8.00 in 2026, and surge to above $10 in 2027. In 2029, he sees a $12.25 price ― which would be a 373% increase.

Macroeconomics

To be sure, XRP’s price rally risks being punctured by the same factors that could scupper the overall crypto bull run.

Chief among them? Trump’s chaotic trade war with some 90 countries across the world.

While the White House has put a 90 day pause on introducing sweeping tariffs and seems to be inching closer to a trade deal with China, any resumption of the aggressive trade levies could trigger another crypto plunge.

“The underlying uncertainty remains,” Oncu said. “Given the interconnected nature of markets, crypto has experienced volatility from tariff stop-starts.”

The Federal Reserve is another factor to keep an eye on. At the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the central bank decided to keep interest rates at their current levels.

Traders don’t expect to see a rate cut before July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. But the chance of a cut surges to 95% by December.

Low interest rates incentivise investors to invest in risk-on assets. Cryptocurrency prices tend to surge as a result.

Crypto market movers

• Bitcoin is up 0.2% over the past 24 hours to trade at $103,747.
• Ethereum is up 4.9% to trade at $2,602.

What we’re reading

Eric Johansson is Inside Solana’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.